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Six months ago the story was that AI was about to empty every office. Last week the data said something different.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported 43,994 announced US job cuts for October. That is the lowest October since 2023 and down 71 percent on last year. AI was named in just 1,265 of them, the lowest month of 2026. The next morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 165,000 jobs added, with professional and business services up 70,000 against a usual 15,000.

Do not take a victory lap. AI still accounts for about 121,000 cuts this year, roughly one in five. And a lot of the planned hiring is seasonal: Amazon alone said 300,000. But the direction is clear. The panic cooled, and hiring is back in the plan.

That matters if you are building a team abroad. When US employers go back to competing for people, the easy window to hire well starts to close. And the countries you are weighing keep changing the rules while you decide. Spain wants a 5.3 percent higher minimum wage from January. Mexico starts shortening its legal work week on the same date.

Do not build a plan that needs the cycle to cooperate. Build one that still works when it turns.

This Week's Number: 1,265 : the AI-attributed job cuts in October, out of 43,994 announced. The lowest AI month of 2026 (Challenger, Gray & Christmas, October 2026).

1. US layoffs hit a three-year October low, and AI barely showed up in them.
The Challenger October report, released November 5, counts 43,994 announced cuts, down from 153,074 a year ago. Year to date, cuts are 617,189, down 44 percent. Planned hires for October were 444,692, up 57 percent and the highest October in the series back to 2009, though seasonal plans from Amazon and UPS carry much of that. Then the BLS jobs report on November 6: 165,000 jobs added, unemployment at 4.1 percent, and average hourly earnings up 3.1 percent over twelve months.

One month is not a trend, and I would not bet the plan on it. But the AI layoff story drove a lot of board-level caution this year, and caution is now optional again. If your 2027 plan assumed a loose US labor market and cheap domestic backfills, check that assumption this week. The companies that spent the year waiting are about to bid against each other for the same people.

2. Spain plans a 5.3 percent minimum wage rise for 2027, three weeks before an election.
Spain's Labour Minister Yolanda Díaz confirmed on November 6, as reported by the Spanish press, that the monthly minimum wage would go from €1,221 to €1,286, paid over 14 installments, effective January 1. The draft royal decree is in public consultation until November 16, and she says it will be approved before year end. General elections are on November 29, and the government keeps the legal power to approve it even in a caretaker period. I could not find the ministry text itself, so treat the figures as reported until the decree appears in the official gazette.

A minimum wage rise rarely changes what you pay a finance or operations hire directly. What it does is push the bottom of the pay scale, and that pressure travels up through collective agreements and salary bands. Spain is a very good market for bilingual finance and ops teams. Plan the 2027 budget as a range until the decree is published, and make sure someone local is reading the gazette, not you.

3. Mexico starts cutting the legal work week on January 1, and most firms have not run the numbers.
Mexican press, citing the labor ministry and a study by Adecco, reports that the constitutional reform moves the standard week from 48 hours to 46 in 2027, then 44, 42 and 40 by 2030. Adecco estimates hourly labor cost rises 4.3 percent in 2027 and about 20 percent by 2030, and that three in four companies have not calculated the effect. Separately, the 2027 minimum wage talks run through December, after a 13 percent rise to 315.04 pesos a day in 2026. Business is asking for inflation plus one or two points, and one major union confederation for 5 to 10 percent.

Mexico is one of the strongest places to build a concentrated team, and nothing here changes that. But a four-year phase-in is not a one-time setup task. Someone has to re-cost every seat each January, adjust schedules and overtime, and keep the paperwork aligned with each step. An employer of record is a sensible way to start a market. A schedule that changes every year for four years is an operating job, and it needs an owner.

October layoffs fell 71 percent. Planned hiring rose 57 percent.

Announced US job cuts and planned hires, October 2025 vs October 2026, from the Challenger, Gray & Christmas October report released November 5.

Read it as a swing. A year ago employers were announcing three and a half cuts for every ten hires planned. Now it is closer to one. Much of the hiring is seasonal, with Amazon at 300,000 and UPS at 100,000, so this is not a white-collar boom. But the mood has changed, and mood sets budgets. Source: Challenger, Gray & Christmas. If your hiring plan was built in a cautious quarter, it is worth asking what changes when your competitors stop being cautious.

Try this before year end. Pick the one country you are most likely to hire in next. Write down the date its next cost change lands, whether that is a pay floor, a work-week rule or a benefit review. Then write down who on your side is watching that date. If the answer is nobody, or "our payroll provider", that is the gap.

If you want a second pair of eyes on it, I am happy to go through it with you. Thirty minutes, your countries, no slides from me. No pitch. Just insight from someone who has been there.

Book a strategy session and bring your one country.

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