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Most companies price a hire by the salary. Almost nobody prices the exit.

This week, three things moved. Argentina starts a fund on November 1 where employers pre-fund severance every month. The UK says that from January 1 a worker can claim unfair dismissal after six months instead of two years, with the cap on compensation removed. And ISG reported that outsourcing money is growing where people run things, not where they write code.

Different countries, same message. The cost of a person is moving from a surprise to a line item. In Buenos Aires that line item is 1 or 2.5 percent of payroll, due every month. In London it is whatever a tribunal decides, with no ceiling.

I like this trend more than people expect. A cost with a due date is a cost you can plan for. The expensive ones were always the exits nobody had priced.

Every country has an exit cost. It might be a statutory formula, a fund, a tribunal, or a notice period you forgot to read. The mistake is not that it exists. The mistake is finding out the day someone leaves.

So before anyone builds a team anywhere, I ask three questions. What does it cost to end the relationship? Who pays? And when do I find out? If the answer is "we will see", that is not a budget. That is hope.

Run that test on every country in your plan this month. It takes an afternoon, and it is far cheaper than learning the answer later.

Price the exit before you price the hire.

This Week's Number: +12% vs +0.3% : Q3 growth in business-process outsourcing versus IT outsourcing contract value, per ISG. The money is chasing operations.

1. Argentina turns severance from a surprise into a monthly bill.
Argentina's Decree 408/2026 starts the new Labor Assistance Fund on November 1, 2026. Under the tax agency's implementing rules, published October 1, private employers pay 2.5 percent of each worker's contribution base if they are a small or mid-sized company, and 1 percent if they are not, starting with November payroll. The money sits in an individual account for each employer and exists to help pay severance when someone leaves. The account has a six-month waiting period, and it covers only workers registered for at least 12 months.

Read the decree and you will see what the fund is not. It is there to help employers meet severance, and it does not change the existing severance regime. So treat it as a savings account for a liability, not a way out of it. A cost you pre-fund every month is a cost you can forecast. That beats a lump sum landing in the quarter someone leaves. But somebody now has to register the account, file it with payroll each month, and know what happens during the waiting window. At five people, an employer of record handles that for you, and that is exactly what it is for. At thirty, you want the person running the team to own it too.

2. The UK is making the home-market hire more expensive to let go.
Acas's guide to the Employment Rights Act 2025 sets out the dates. Tribunal time limits for some claims rose from three months to six on October 1. On October 30, employers must take "all reasonable steps" to prevent sexual harassment and become liable for harassment by third parties such as customers. And on January 1, 2027, the qualifying period for unfair dismissal falls from two years to six months, while the cap on compensation is removed. Fire and rehire protections follow in January 2027. Acas notes that details may still change after consultation.

Do the sum your CFO will do. From January, a UK hire in month seven carries an exit cost with no ceiling. That changes the maths on every marginal role. It does not mean you run for the door. Every country has rules, as Argentina just showed, and offshore ones are often not lighter, only different. The point is not to escape the rules. It is to know the price before you hire. If you use an employer of record abroad, ask in writing who bears termination costs and how they are passed through. A clear answer is a good sign. A vague one is also an answer.

3. Outsourcing buyers are paying for operations, not code.
ISG's Q3 index (October 8) put the combined market at a record $52.5 billion, up 63 percent, driven by AI infrastructure. The managed-services slice, where the people are, was $11.3 billion, up 2.1 percent. Inside it, business process outsourcing rose 12 percent to $2.1 billion, a fourth straight double-digit quarter, helped by bundled back-office services and facilities management that ISG links to global capability centers and data centers. IT outsourcing grew 0.3 percent, application development and maintenance fell 8 percent, and customer experience services declined.

ISG's Steve Hall says buyers are "concentrating their spending on fewer, larger strategic commitments." Put that next to the numbers and the picture is clear. Money follows work that someone has to run every day, and leaves work that software can absorb. A captive center of 3,000 is not a mid-market option. But the logic scales down: a concentrated team of 10 to 60 people in one country, run by an accountable owner, is the same idea at a size you can actually buy. Start with an employer of record to get moving. Then decide who runs it, and who eventually owns it.

Where managed-services money grew in Q3 2026

Caption: Year-over-year change in annual contract value by managed-services segment, Q3 2026. Source: ISG Index, 3Q26, released October 8, 2026. Application development and maintenance is part of IT outsourcing.

Same quarter, same buyers, very different outcomes. Business process work grew 12 percent while application development shrank 8. The money is chasing work that needs an accountable operator, and leaving work that software is starting to absorb. If your 2027 plan treats every function as the same kind of headcount, it is probably pointing at the wrong ones.

Try this before your next planning meeting. Pick one country on your list and write down three things: what it costs to end an employment relationship there, who pays, and when you would find out. Then do the same for your home market. Most teams can answer the salary question in a minute and the exit question not at all.

If you want a second pair of eyes on it, I am happy to go through it with you. Thirty minutes, your country list, no slides from me. No pitch. Just insight from someone who has been there.

Book a strategy session and bring your country list.

📖 New here? My book, Winning the Global Talent War, is the full playbook behind this newsletter.